US-China Relations

Analysis: First Impressions of the Trump-Xi Summit

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By Eason Chen/Howard Chang/Lery Hiciano

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To get a better understanding of how the Trump-Xi Summit could impact Taiwan-US ties, TaiwanPlus spoke with Assistant Professor Arthur Wang from Central Police University. He thinks that despite China looking to shift the US stance on supporting Taiwan, nothing that has come out of the meeting so far indicates a change in American policy.

Trump-Xi Summit: Implications for Taiwan

REPORTER:  
The Chinese version of the readout briefly mentions Taiwan. Taiwan remains a key issue in the bilateral relationship, and Xi reportedly asked the US to oppose “Taiwanese Independence” a more hardline stance compared to current usual US policy of “not supporting” it. How should Taiwan see this whole summit?

Arthur Wang (ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, CENTRAL POLICE UNIVERSITY):  
On Taiwanese independence, China has consistently sought to persuade the US to shift its stance from "not supporting" to actively opposing it. What is particularly worth paying attention to this time is the wording used by Xinhua News Agency. They of course oppose Taiwan's independence but they preface it by expressing hope the US will, too. The use of the word "hope" in this context is rare and we may interpret it as China potentially seeking to strengthen its efforts to shift the US position to actively opposing Taiwanese independence. Nevertheless, I think fundamental US policy remains consistent: neither supporting Taiwan's independence nor any unilateral change to Taiwan's status quo.  
So, I think things remain quite stable.

REPORTER:  
We’ve seen a number of US lawmakers voice support for Taiwan ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. How important is bipartisan congressional support in shaping US policy toward Taiwan? Looking ahead, how might Congress influence the administration’s approach to Taiwan as US-China relations evolve?

Arthur Wang (ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, CENTRAL POLICE UNIVERSITY):  
There are different voices within the US. Congressional representatives and senators have generally been long-term Taiwan supporters or supporters of freedom, democracy and human rights. This provides a constraint to US cross-strait policy because the US is a democratic country. Over the last 10 years, the US has also passed several laws that have gradually strengthened US-Taiwan ties.  
So even though we mentioned a potential easing of US-China tensions that does not necessarily mean it will immediately change US-Taiwan ties.  
There is also one more factor we must consider: the upcoming US midterm elections.  
To some extent, that outcome could place some constraints on Trump's current China policy.

REPORTER:  
There have been reports that a potential $14 billion US arms sale to Taiwan is facing delays amid Chinese concerns, while some US lawmakers have urged the Trump administration to move forward. How do you assess the situation, and what factors might be shaping the administration’s approach?

Arthur Wang (ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, CENTRAL POLICE UNIVERSITY):  
We have observed that so far there's been no news that arms sales to Taiwan were discussed during the Trump-Xi meeting. I am sure the Chinese side emphasized its opposition to arms sales to Taiwan. But I am also sure that the US position likely remains unchanged since the leaders met in Beijing in May. Arms sales to Taiwan are up to the US.  
The decision to sell arms to Taiwan is driven by considerations like the conflict with Iran, the needs of Ukraine and overall worldwide deployments. But from this we can see that the US side still believes China is a threat to the Asia-Pacific First Island Chain. Looking at the US's global deployments I think it will continue to provide Taiwan with necessary defensive weapons. I think this overall trend will remain unchanged.