Analysis: What the Purge of China's Top General Means for Taiwan
China's People's Liberation Army General Zhang Youxia is reportedly under investigation for violations of discipline, appearing ensnared in Chinese President Xi Jinping's ongoing purge of PLA leadership. TaiwanPlus spoke with defense analyst Ming-shih Shen from the INDSR on what the investigation could mean for both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
Chinese Military Purge
REPORTER:
What do you think this says about Xi's hold on power in the state of government military relations in China?
Ming-shih Shen (DEFENSE ANALYST, INDSR):
First, Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping already had some conflicts dating back to the Third Plenum [policy meeting] in 2024.
Now that Xi has consolidated all military power he may need some time to ease the consequences of this coup.
He will likely still require the military to follow his demands and prepare for an attack on Taiwan before 2027.
Right now, there’s no balance in the military’s internal authority.
The people who could hold Xi in check or impose limits to his authority are all gone.
Under these circumstances, it becomes easier for him to take risky actions based on his own personal thinking especially in the Taiwan Strait or in relations with the US.
REPORTER:
What does this mean for Xi's plans to modernize the PLA and be able to launch a successful invasion of Taiwan by 2027?
Ming-shih Shen (DEFENSE ANALYST, INDSR):
I think Xi Jinping will take this opportunity to intensify pressure on Taiwan and he may even resort to force to resolve the issue.
The purge of the military [leadership] and modernization [efforts] appear to be in contradiction of each other.
Xi has demanded the armed forces be prepared for a military conflict by 2027 or at least be capable of attacking Taiwan.
However, I think this latest round of arrests not only limited to Zhang Youxia but also maybe other generals in the future will hinder the PLA’s modernization efforts.
It may not even be capable of confronting the US in a Taiwan Strait conflict by 2027.
REPORTER:
Do you have any recommendations that Taiwan or allies like the US could take in response to this ongoing situation?
Ming-shih Shen (DEFENSE ANALYST, INDSR):
The PLA is in a state of internal chaos.
I think Taiwan and the US should take advantage of this opportunity to win over generals that oppose Xi.
They could also use this as an opportunity to recruit PLA officers and push them to take more radical actions against Xi betray him or adopt passive resistance.
This could divide China internally or at least divide the PLA and leave it without the ability to expand outward or use force to attack Taiwan.
