Diplomacy

Analysis: How US Could React to China's Requests for Change of Policy on Taiwan

Published

By John Su/Alec MacDonald/Isabel Wang

Open in App

Following the Wall Street Journal's reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping is requesting that the Trump Administration officially oppose Taiwanese independence, how has the US traditionally reacted to China's attempts to change policy on Taiwan? TaiwanPlus sat down with Institute for Indo-Pacific Security Chair and former US assistant secretary of defense Randall Schriver to find out how Trump could react to such scenarios.

Interview: US, Taiwan, and China Relations Decision-Making, Diplomacy, and Economic Security

---

REPORTER:  

When people look at President Trump, they say he's very hard to predict. And you personally work with him very closely. What is his decision-making process like looking at US, Taiwan, China relation?

Randy Schriver (FORMER U.S. DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE):  

I haven't seen any signs that he views Taiwan as a bargaining chip as you sometimes hear people here or that he's on the brink of making huge concessions related to Taiwan. I don't know him that well, but I did spend some time supporting the Korea diplomacy. And I was with him in Hanoi when he walked away from a deal with the North Koreans. He said it was a bad deal, and sometimes you walk away from a bad deal. So in my experience, he is transactional but really still grounded to American interests and unlikely to take a bad deal as long as he recognizes it's a bad deal.

REPORTER:  

In November, we all know that Trump will potentially meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. What do you think are the topics they will probably talk about, or Taiwan related?

Randy Schriver (FORMER U.S. DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE):  

It's quite common for China to make attempts at linkages. Well, if you want this on trade, you've got to do this on Taiwan. I don't think that's going to be a very attractive offer to the president. I don't think he will want to look weak. I don't think he'll want to make a move that looks like he made too many concessions to Xi Jinping.

REPORTER:  

I want to quote here because Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent actually commented about the trip about Taiwan as well. And then there, he said the single greatest point of failure for the world economy is the 99% of the high performance chips that are produced in Taiwan. So I know he's trying to de-risk by moving more chips production elsewhere. What do you think about that?

Randy Schriver (FORMER U.S. DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE):  

I can't speak for him and I can't interpret exactly what he meant.

REPORTER:  

Just in general the US administration's move by doing that.

Randy Schriver (FORMER U.S. DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE):  

Yeah, to me, it suggests Taiwan should be a closer partner and a stronger partner. And that our economies are complementary, not competitive. We should have a lot of confidence in Taiwan's ability to continue to play that role as a global leader, particularly a dominant leader in the supply chain when it comes to these high end chips. Yes, the US would like to see some of that production manufacturing move to the United States. Yes, we'd like to see some of the supply chain also move to the United States so that we have some clean and secure capability to manufacture. But it would be unrealistic if by de-risk they mean 100%.

REPORTER:  

It may mention like 30, 40, 50%.

Randy Schriver (FORMER U.S. DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE):  

Yeah. Well I understand the interest on the part of the administration and the United States. But that's a negotiation. Taiwan has chips to bring to the table, too. No pun intended.