Indo-Pacific Security

US Military Action in Venezuela: Implications for China and Regional Allies

REPORTER:  

We’ve seen a lot of commentary about how US actions towards Venezuela could justify Chinese actions towards Taiwan, such as kidnaping President Lai Ching-te or some sort of military campaign. What do you think about this sort of threat?

William Yang, INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP :

I think we need to first remember that for China, the cross-strait issue and the Taiwan question is a domestic affair. So, you know, however, Trump decides to bypass international law to conduct the capture of Maduro is not going to actually be applicable to the calculation that China actually has.

Witnessing the way and the style that Trump actually moved ahead with the execution of the operation in Venezuela is also not going to change much of the calculation

The number one goal is to actually still be able to complete unification with Taiwan without having to trigger a war.

REPORTER:

What do you think about the different reactions we've seen from different players in the Asia-Pacific region? We’ve already seen anonymous Taiwanese officials quoted in international media saying that actually, Trump’s moves towards Venezuela increase deterrence because they show that he’s willing to take military action. We’ve seen China express shock and outrage. We saw Japan put out a statement as well. What do you think about these?

William Yang, INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP :

I can understand where Taiwan is coming from...it is possible that when China look at Donald Trump's, uh, you know, determination to actually resort to military solution to actually accomplish the mission that he wants to achieve in Venezuela, then they would have to always keep in mind that Trump is a leader that is willing to resort to military solutions or options.

I think, uh, for other regional allies, obviously, as long as the, similar approach is not replicated within Indo-Pacific region, they would not see a need for them to outright criticize the Trump administration’s way of handling the whole Venezuela situation and the capture of Maduro.

REPORTER:  

Do you have any thoughts on how US actions in Latin America could eventually have consequences for Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific region more broadly?

William Yang, INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP :

I think the immediate effect or consequences I can think of is the fact that in the future, when the United States tries to, uh, conduct freedom of navigation, operation through the Taiwan Strait, for example, or conduct joint patrols with like-minded allies in disputed waters like the South China Sea or the East China Sea. They would have to, uh, remember that when they characterize these actions as, uh, in abiding with international law, they will always face, uh, questions or pushback from China by referring back to the incident or the way and the style that they have carried out the capture of Maduro you know, as an example of undermining international law and also facing criticism or questioning from China for the legitimacy of the United States resorting to international law for conducting these operations