Analysis: Arms Sale Pause and a Possible Talk Between Trump and Lai
A US military official said Thursday that arms sales to Taiwan have been put on hold due to a need to maintain sufficient munitions for the Iran war, which appears to conflict with President Donald Trump’s earlier remarks that a major pending deal could be used as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China. TaiwanPlus speaks with former US commerce adviser for Asia Sean King, now senior vice president at Park Strategies, for his insights.
U.S. Taiwan Arms Sales Pause Contradiction
REPORTER:
US acting Navy Secretary on Thursday said that the US has paused arms sales to Taiwan due to the Iran war and concerns over munitions stockpiles. But this seems to have contradicted the narrative that the US president Donald Trump has shifted his stance on Taiwan arms sales following his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. What are your thoughts?
It seems like a total contradiction and kind of out of nowhere from Taiwan’s point of view. I guess it's somewhat reassuring that the arms sales are on hold, not because Trump doesn't want to annoy, uh, Xi Jinping, but because of a shortage. But that's also troubling for Taiwan and other partners, and it kind of tips off our enemies and adversaries that we could be vulnerable. So even if it's true, I don't know why he would say it. And it seems to totally contradict what Trump's been saying.
REPORTER:
So since the Trump-Xi summit, President Trump has said that he would speak with President Lai Ching-te. Do you think the two will end up having a conversation?
Well, the first time I heard Trump say this was when he was having the press gaggle on the way home from Beijing on Air Force One. And I, like many, assume he misspoke. But then he said it again with Trump, you never know. I mean, I hope he does. You know, unlike Xi Jinping, William Lai is actually elected by his own citizens. And Trump in 2018 did sign the Taiwan Travel Act into law, which calls for U.S. Taiwan travel at all levels. So the least he could do is talk to William Lai on the phone.
After all, he's met dictator Kim Jong Un three times in person. And we also don't have diplomatic relations with Pyongyang. My fear is that Trump may be just using William Lai to get Xi Jinping's attention as a further negotiating chip. Uh, so you really don't know. I hope they talk. And if they do, I hope it's a respectful, uh, civil conversation and not just a question of Trump lecturing or hectoring Lai, as we so infamously saw when Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky visited the White House the first time under Trump.
REPORTER:
To Beijing, would a Trump-Lai conversation cross a red line? What kind of reaction from China do you expect?
I don't know if it'd be a red line, maybe a pink line. Uh, they would definitely be upset. I expect them to go ballistic in figurative, verbal, uh, diplomatic sense. I would immediately expect them to cancel any and all promised U.S. purchases of U.S. goods on the last trip, whether it's airplanes, soybeans, or whatever. I would also expect Xi to not come to the US in September as planned. I would expect a whole new round of aggressive military exercises around Taiwan, crossing the median line and everything else like we saw in the summer of 2022 and since. So I expect Beijing to blow a gasket, as we would say in American vernacular. But hopefully if it comes to that, Trump will just see it through and, and not overreact, not cave and not apologize.
