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China’s aggressive “gray-zone” warfare — from near-daily military incursions to disinformation and drone harassment — is blurring the lines between peace and conflict, posing mounting threats to both Taiwan and Europe, experts warn.
In a recent Zoom In Zoom Out episode, China Strategic Risk Institute executive director Andrew Yeh said the gray zone covers “everything from the light gray through to the dark gray,” from propaganda to activities verging on open military confrontation.
Yeh said Taiwan has faced “significant amounts of not just Chinese propaganda, but also information manipulation, disinformation campaigns,” while Europe sees similar tactics from Russia. “We have begun to recently see that actually also take place in Europe,” he said, citing Russian drones entering Polish airspace as an example of Moscow mirroring China’s methods.
What was once exceptional has become routine. Chinese warplanes now breach the median line of the Taiwan Strait nearly every day — a move Yeh says has become “a de facto element of the status quo.” He called it “extremely dangerous,” adding that “if you’re able to consistently and repeatedly normalize and change facts on the ground, then that does have a real present impact.”
Such normalization erodes Taiwan’s defensive readiness and effectively redraws the security map without a single shot fired, he said.
While Taiwan has shown urgency in strengthening its defenses, Yeh believes Europe must do more to respond collectively. “Every time China escalates the gray zone, there needs to be a diplomatic response,” he said, suggesting targeted sanctions on Chinese military actors and stronger cooperation with Taiwan on cyber, energy, and communication security. “It doesn’t need to be full-scale, widespread sanctions … but still some level to show it’s more than just words.”
Taiwan’s proposed “T-Dome” air defense system, announced by President Lai Ching-te during his Double Ten National Day address, could help bolster deterrence. It is “vitally important” for defense and for “making Taiwanese feel safe, confident in their security,” Yeh said.
He warned that delayed US arms deliveries to Taiwan could undermine deterrence, saying, “The more Taiwan can strengthen its own deterrence to stop that contingency developing in the first place, the more that’s in the US interest as well.”
Yeh also pointed to the increasing threat of drones to both civilian and military targets. “We’re not just talking about military drones,” he said. “Relatively ordinary drones … are still able to have an outsized impact simply by disrupting airports and other critical infrastructure,” referring to recent drone incursions over Copenhagen and Oslo airports, which grounded flights and cost airlines millions of euros.
He added that such incidents raised questions about Europe’s ability “to coordinate and respond when suspected vessels or other equipment are being used in these attacks.”
Beyond physical incursions, Yeh said China’s influence operations extend across borders. “The term transnational repression has been used to try and describe some of these activities,” he said, referring to harassment of Hong Kong and Taiwanese dissidents abroad. “We know that the Chinese Communist Party considers Taiwan nationals [to be] Chinese nationals. They have no qualms whatsoever in enforcing their measures against them.”
Still, Yeh commended Taiwan’s quick response to emerging threats, including new laws to protect its undersea cables. “Europe has not managed any of that,” he said, noting that while Taiwan prosecutes sabotage cases, “the EU’s action plan on cable security is still at the risk assessment stage.”
In an era where cyberattacks, disinformation, and drones redefine warfare, Yeh’s warning is clear: The gray zone is expanding — and democracies must close ranks before it turns darker.
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