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The Chinese Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang (KMT), is heading into a leadership race that could redefine its political strategy and foreign relations ahead of key elections in 2026 and 2028. With no clear favorite, the Oct. 18 chair election is shaping up to be a test of the party’s unity and direction after years of internal struggles and poor national showings.
Political analyst Courtney Donovan Smith says this year’s race is “both very consequential and in some ways not as much as in the past.” Traditionally, the KMT chair and presidential candidate are the same person, but “it looks extremely unlikely that any of the candidates are going to run for president,” he said. Still, the party chair remains a powerful position that sets the tone and strategy for the KMT’s future.
The main contenders are former Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin, former lawmaker Cheng Li-wen, and former presidential office deputy secretary Lo Chih-chiang. Chang Ya-chung, head of the Sun Yat-sen School, trails as a distant fourth but still commands attention within the party’s ideological base.
Smith said Cheng Li-wen currently leads in polling among party members, followed by Hau and Lo. “Not impossible, but unlikely,” he said of Chang’s chances. The Apollo poll shows Cheng with about 30% support, well ahead of Hau at 17%.
Despite recent local election victories, the KMT faces steep challenges. “The official documents submitted to the Ministry of the Interior suggest that they have about 70 million USD in liabilities,” Smith said. Outgoing chair Eric Chu stabilized the party’s finances but “by no means has solved these problems.”
Ideologically, the KMT’s positions have drifted “outside of the mainstream of public opinion,” Smith noted, warning that the party must recalibrate if it hopes to return to national power.
Each of the frontrunners brings distinct advantages. Hau’s extensive administrative experience could help him manage “the finances [and] local party branches,” Smith said. Cheng, meanwhile, “comes across as very determined and energetic” and could mobilize new supporters. Lo is “a talk show darling” skilled in online promotion, which could help the party reach younger or more digitally engaged voters.
All candidates are expected to pursue closer ties with Beijing. “It’s a question of deep blue or deeper blue,” Smith said. While none are openly anti-American, they are “definitely more American skeptical,” he added, noting Hau’s recent remarks about “not kneeling to the United States.” On Japan, Smith said the KMT remains “more Japan skeptical” due to historical tensions but emphasized that none of the candidates advocate cutting ties.
The potential revival of the powerful Huangfu Hsin military faction, which Chu disbanded, has stirred controversy. Smith said Cheng has gained “a lot of traction within the military faction,” while local patronage networks in central and southern Taiwan lean toward Hau.
Meanwhile, gender dynamics could play a growing role. Two-thirds of female KMT candidates won in the 2022 local elections, Smith said, noting that Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen has subtly signaled support for Cheng.
With polls showing the KMT regaining some national favor, Smith cautions that its leadership must avoid overconfidence. “They may be running a little too far ahead of public opinion,” he said. As the party prepares to elect its next leader, the results will reveal whether the KMT can modernize and rebuild — or remain mired in its ideological past.
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