Taiwan-US Relations

Analysis: How Taiwan Can Manage US Weapons Delivery Delays

Published

By Ryan Wu/Lery Hiciano

Open in App

Defense analyst Yang Tai-yuan speaks to TaiwanPlus about the potential reasons why weapons deliveries from the US, including US$8 billion in fighter jets, are facing delays.

Title: Analysis of Delays in US Military Deliveries to Taiwan

 

TAIWANPLUS REPORTER  

 

Can you elaborate a little bit on why you think that these delays are happening and what their origin is?

 

Yang Tai-yuan

DEFENSE ANALYST

SECURE TAIWAN ASSOCIATE CORPORATION

 

I think the first reason may be that a large part of US military production is currently focused on Israel and Ukraine. When it comes to a country like Taiwan where there is currently not as urgent a need it makes sense that deliveries are not as fast.

 

The second reason is that delays could be related to rare-earth [metals] or semiconductor issues.

 

The question right now is that if one side says there is a delay it could mean slower deliveries or a few postponements, which everyone can understand. But right now, not a single plane has been delivered. For a lot of citizens, that is the main issue.

 

TAIWANPLUS REPORTER  

Do you think the decision do you think the decision to seek compensation could negatively affect US Taiwan relations?

 

Yang Tai-yuan

DEFENSE ANALYST

SECURE TAIWAN ASSOCIATE CORPORATION

Based on past experience, the chances of successfully getting compensation from the US for contract breaches is very small. I think that in some areas of cooperation there's a chance for [the US] to offer other, indirect or disguised, compensation.

 

I think people should consider this instead of focusing on [the idea that] these delays are the US’ fault and how much money will we get. I think, practically speaking that would be very unrealistic.

 

TAIWANPLUS REPORTER  

Can you explain what the backlog is in total and what it means? Are these weapons that Taiwan has paid for but has not received yet, or are these weapons that have been agreed upon? But payment and delivery has not happened yet.

 

Yang Tai-yuan

DEFENSE ANALYST

SECURE TAIWAN ASSOCIATE CORPORATION

I think the total US$21 billion [from delays] is cumulative. [A delay] could mean that the US moved forward with production but did not manufacture or deliver the goods on time.

 

We also need to consider the possibility that although we already agreed to contracts, rising commodity prices, labor costs or expensive rare earth elements could lead to the US renegotiating and adjusting prices if they cross contract thresholds. This is something we should pay attention to rather than focusing on how much we spent.