Analysis: Why Chinese Military Flights Near Taiwan Have Decreased
Chinese military activity near Taiwan has dropped sharply in recent weeks, with some days seeing no warplanes detected around the country. TaiwanPlus spoke with defense analyst Sheng Ming-shi from INDSR for his thoughts on what could have caused this sudden shift.
Chinese Military Activity: Reasons Behind Reduced Tensions
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Why do you think there’s been a drop in Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait?
REPORTER:
Why do you think there’s been a drop in Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait?
Shen Ming-shih (DEFENSE ANALYST, INDSR):
The first reason is that the US taking military action against Iran has shocked China. In addition, with Donald Trump preparing to meet Xi Jinping, China would not want to give him any reason or excuse to pressure China. The second reason is that the US attack on Iran could restrict oil supplies.
However, some scholars have a different view. They say that flights were banned because authorities are worried that pilots might defect flying their aircraft to Taiwan or to other countries. I think this explanation is a bit implausible.
Recently there have been some rumors circulating in China suggesting that people should try to talk less about using military force against Taiwan.
We also saw during the “Two Sessions” that when Chinese Premier [Li Qiang] mentioned Taiwan he said that supporters of Taiwanese independence were only a very small minority. That suggests that the main policy may no longer be opposing independence but rather promoting unification.
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Why has China changed tactics: the domestic debate over arms sales? The US war with Iran? Purges inside the PLA leadership?
REPORTER:
Why has China changed tactics: the domestic debate over arms sales? The US war with Iran? Purges inside the PLA leadership?
Shen Ming-shih (DEFENSE ANALYST, INDSR):
Because [Xi] believes that if supporters of Taiwanese independence are only a very small minority then they would naturally not pose a threat to him. If they are not a threat there is no need at this moment to demonstrate military capability or use military force to intimidate Taiwan. This explanation does not conflict with the idea that the US and Israel attacking Iran is a factor. That situation could also lead China to reconsider whether it should continue coercing Taiwan. After all, China ultimately has to face the United States or a president like Trump and it does not have the ability to defeat the US military.
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Do you think this represents a long-term change in China’s strategy or is it more likely things will return to normal?
REPORTER:
Do you think this represents a long-term change in China’s strategy or is it more likely things will return to normal?
Shen Ming-shih (DEFENSE ANALYST, INDSR):
After the surprise attack on Venezuela and this recent surprise attack [on Iran] Xi Jinping has come to realize along with China’s PLA generals that China’s military cannot defeat the US. Under those circumstances he must change his policy toward Taiwan. If China continues to pressure Taiwan it could escalate tensions. But escalating tensions brings no benefit to China at all. For example, Japan is strengthening its military capabilities and is considering revising its constitution [to remilitarize] and changing its rules governing arms exports.
If a conflict were to truly break out it would be extremely unfavorable for China especially for Xi Jinping’s leadership and for China’s future development.
