Breaking Down Fact and Fiction in the India-Pakistan Conflict
On May 7, 2025, India and Pakistan started a kinetic tit-for-tat conflict following a diplomatic fallout over a terror attack in India. Although the conflict lasted only four days, munitions hit civilian areas in both countries while rumors swirled about how deep India and Pakistan were able to strike within their rival nation. For Taiwan, it was the first conflict in which modern Chinese equipment was utilized, even if the combat was mostly aerial. What are the lessons learned and what really happened in the conflict? In this episode of Zoom In Zoom Out, Asia Pacific Leadership Network senior research advisor Frank O'Donnell separates fact from fiction and breaks down the long-term implications for Taiwan and the world.
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A recent high-tech military conflict between India and Pakistan has provided rare combat testing of Chinese-supplied weapons, with implications for regional security and China's own military planning.
The four-day conflict saw the deployment of advanced aircraft, precision missiles and combat drones on both sides. India used its Rafale fighter jets, while Pakistan deployed J-10 and JF-17 fighter jets. The exchange gave both nations an opportunity to test frontline systems in real-time warfare.
Frank O'Donnell, a senior advisor at the Asia Pacific Leadership Network in Washington, D.C., said drones were widely used for precision strikes, limiting the risk to pilots. However, the use of cutting-edge systems also highlighted limitations in defense capabilities.
Indian strikes on targets deep inside Pakistan, including air bases, also suggest a shift in tactics. Satellite imagery and damage reports lend some support to these claims. “India was clearly signaling to Pakistan that we can reach what are your sensitive air bases,” O'Donnell said.
Despite Pakistan's media asserting that Chinese J-10 jets successfully downed Indian fighters, O'Donnell noted the lack of confirmation. Still, he argued that China’s People's Liberation Army will likely benefit from the conflict by analyzing how its weapons performed against Western systems.
While some in Taiwan are watching the conflict for parallels, O'Donnell downplayed the idea that this alters Beijing’s calculations. “I don't think it really teaches any new lessons, but it reaffirms existing ones” he said.
“While China will have some increased confidence in its technical abilities of these platforms as they were tested in real time, "O'Donnell explained, “that still doesn't change a lot in terms of broader China, Taiwan, Taiwan Strait issues.”
