Analysis: Why China Is Rapidly Expanding Its Coal Power Capacity
China approved more new coal power projects than it has in years in 2025, despite renewables meeting new energy demand and Beijing's stated climate goals. To learn why and what what this means for China's energy transition, Lily LaMattina speaks to Qi Qin of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
China’s Coal Commitment and Global Energy Strategy
REPORTER:
In 2021, Chinese President Xi Jinping said he would "strictly control" the coal industry to "phase it down" between 2026 and 2030. Is Beijing staying true to this pledge?
Qi Qin (CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON ENERGY AND CLEAN AIR):
That pledge became much harder to sustain after 2021, because in 2022 and in 2021 and 2022, China experienced a sharp drop in hydropower output due to the droughts. At the same time as coal prices were very high, and that combination led to real power shortages in several regions in China. And in response to that, many local governments prioritized approving new coal power capacity as a risk control measure rather than accelerating reforms to improve system flexibility, which is a more effective way.
REPORTER:
If clean energy met all new power demand in 2025, why is China still building so much new coal capacity? Your report cites “industry interests” and “outdated contracts.” Can you explain this?
Qi Qin (CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON ENERGY AND CLEAN AIR):
In some western coal, abundant provinces, coal and coal power companies, they see the period before 2030 as a closing window to secure new projects before, before the carbon peaking, before constraints tightening further. And in the eastern and more industrialized provinces, there's also a desire to reduce reliance on imported power from other regions. So that's why we've seen the coal power permitting, in both western provinces and eastern provinces. And also at the local level, the new coal power projects still bring tax revenues, jobs, and also short term economic activity. So these incentives, they don't always align well with the what the power system actually needs today.
REPORTER:
How does China’s coal buildout compare to other economies, and what signal does this send to others that are watching China’s energy strategy?
Qi Qin (CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON ENERGY AND CLEAN AIR):
China already operates the world's largest coal power fleet, in 2025 alone. The amount of coal power capacity commissioned in China exceeded the net increase in India, added over roughly in the past decade in the past ten years, and India has the second largest coal power fleet in the world.
In many other economies, coalitions are much more limited and are often directly tied to demand growth. But in China's case, the issue is less about demand and more about how the system is planned.
But without a clear signal to faze down the coal power, there could be, the space left for, for clean energy would be very limited. You know, the coal power could be locked in in the system for a long time.
