CROSS-STRAIT TENSIONS

REPORTER:  

100,000 casualties in a large-scale invasion scenario. It’s a headline grabbing number, one that highlights the difficulties Beijing could face if it starts a cross-strait conflict.

A recent German Marshall Fund report is highlighting the potential downsides facing Beijing if it attempts to take Taiwan by force. Its author says they would be substantial.

Zack Cooper (SENIOR FELLOW, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE):  

I spend so much time with people telling me how costly a Taiwan conflict would be for the United States or for Taiwan, and it could be. Um, but my personal view is that if the Chinese attempted an amphibious invasion of Taiwan today that it would fail and it would be incredibly bloody and costly for the Chinese.  

I think if the Chinese thought there were no costs, they would probably go ahead and try it today. So they themselves must think that the costs are potentially quite high.

REPORTER:  

Those costs wouldn’t be limited to the lives of Chinese soldiers. The report says Beijing could also face sanctions on both its economy and leaders, as well as diplomatic isolation, with some countries even moving to formally recognize Taiwan.

The report’s publication comes just after 17 countries criticized or expressed concern about China’s military exercises around Taiwan in early January.

Even the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro around the same time, was analyzed through the lens of cross-strait relations, with several outlets suggesting that it could provide inspiration for similar actions against Taipei and President Lai Ching-te.

REPORTER:  

There are also domestic concerns that Chinese President Xi Jinping has to consider when weighing his options.

Ming-shih Shen (DEFENSE ANALYST, INDSR):  

But if the price [of a conflict] is too high  such as 100,000 casualties and [China] doesn’t win the war  then Xi Jinping’s authority and leadership  would be severely affected.

It might even trigger a coup or domestic political upheaval.

REPORTER:  

Taiwan is taking steps to make any Chinese attack as difficult as possible. President Lai has already announced major increases to defense spending, although the special budget for that has yet to pass the opposition-led legislature. The US is also moving to strengthen its alliances in the region – bringing together a coalition to oppose Chinese aggression, from Australia to Japan.

As Xi’s 2027 deadline for invasion preparation approaches, all eyes are on the balance of power in the region and whether Taiwan and its partners can make the cost of an invasion too high for China to pay.