Chinese Military Drills

REPORTER:  

After three days of patrols, exercises and live fire drills. What do you think we've learned about the PLA's capabilities when it comes to threatening Taiwan? And on the flip side, what do you think we've learned about Taiwanese armed forces ability to resist such an invasion?

Ming-shih Shen (DEFENSE ANALYST, INDSR):  

First, I believe that [China’s] military strategy towards Taiwan has not changed significantly.  

Although China announced that 130 aircraft participated on the first day of the exercises Taiwan’s air force demonstrated excellent recon capabilities during these drills.  

They showed they can detect and photograph targets from up to 180km away.  

If I can see you, I can strike you.  

Once [Chinese aircraft] cross the median line they are already in range of Taiwan’s air defenses.  

While China may consider these exercises part of a “new normal” Taiwan’s military has already adopted new SOPs.

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REPORTER:  

What do you think we can expect from China's next major drill?

Ming-shih Shen (DEFENSE ANALYST, INDSR):  

Taiwan is already familiar with these exercises.  

Of course, [China] could showcase new weapons but if it’s just an exercise the effectiveness is questionable.  

As for training [China’s] forces if the drills are the same as before I think their effectiveness will continue to decline.  

I think there will still be exercises this year but as it gets closer to Taiwan’s year-end elections they will become less and less likely.  

If there are any new developments I think they would be from the new leader of the [PLA] Eastern Theater Command.

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REPORTER:  

What do you think was the motivation behind China's actions this week? What do you think they were trying to prove with these exercises?

Ming-shih Shen (DEFENSE ANALYST, INDSR):  

In this round of exercises the primary objective was to practice blockades and ways to prevent or deter US and Japanese intervention.  

If the purpose was to respond to US-Taiwan arms sales US President Donald Trump will not change US policy especially now that Taiwan has raised its defense spending to over 5% of GDP. The US will definitely provide more advanced weapons.  

If the drills’ target was Japan Tokyo has already said there would be no change in policy.  

As for deterring Taiwan it was no more effective than before. Actually, it showed mixed signals to Taiwan’s people.  

While promoting peace at the Twin Cities Forum and emphasizing peaceful unification [China] is also displaying military force.