Chinese Military Drills

REPORTER:

Why is the PLA doing these drills?

Ming-shih Shen (DEFENSE ANALYST, INDSR):

I think the motivations and reasons for this exercise are not entirely driven by considerations around Taiwan. It’s possible that China is using this exercise to warn Japan regarding a potential “Taiwan contingency.” The second factor is that the US recently approved the largest arms sale to Taiwan in history. This arms sale included many weapons capable of countering China. The third factor is that a new commander was recently appointed to the Eastern Theater Command. After being promoted it would be natural for him to want to demonstrate his capabilities or display his ambitions which is why this exercise is being carried out.

REPORTER:

How are these drills different from prior drills that took place between 2022 and 2024, like Joint Sword A and Joint Sword B?

Ming-shih Shen (DEFENSE ANALYST, INDSR):

In 2022, the Rocket Force was involved in live-fire exercises. However, for this round of drills it has not been specified whether the live-fire portion involves the rocket force or the navy. If the rocket force is used for live-fire drills that would indicate this exercise is very serious. If it is only standard live-fire training involving aircraft, helicopters or naval vessels then it would still fall within the scope of routine training.

REPORTER:

Do these drills have anything to do with the president's interview yesterday, where he talked a lot about national defense and security issues, or with the ongoing diplomatic spat between China and Japan?

Ming-shih Shen (DEFENSE ANALYST, INDSR):

It’s very clear that this exercise is related to Japan because Japan’s role in a Taiwan Strait conflict is closely intertwined with that of Taiwan so it must involve Japan. As for President Lai’s interview this exercise shows that the diplomatic and military government departments are likely not in sync. In addition, foreign media is reporting that Taipei’s deputy mayor is currently in Shanghai attending the Twin Cities Forum and yet the military immediately goes ahead with an exercise. That shows that the Taipei-Shanghai Twin-Cities Forum operates at a local level and fundamentally does not understand the thinking within the military.