Navigating New Currents: Changing Dynamics Among Japan, China, Taiwan and the US
In this episode of DC Insiders, host Wenchi Yu and Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center of the Brookings Institution, discuss how Taiwan fits into the evolving dynamics of US–China competition under Trump 2.0, emphasizing that Washington’s core interests — peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and support for Taiwan’s security — remain durable despite sharper rhetoric and political polarization. He argues that while President Trump’s unconventional style and the expanded “Overton window” have made internal US debates on Taiwan more visible, they have not fundamentally altered longstanding policy foundations, including the US’s commitment to Taiwan’s self-defense. Hass cautions against viewing Taiwan merely as an annex of the US-China rivalry, stressing that the US-Taiwan relationship is robust, mutually beneficial and should be advanced on its own merits rather than as a pawn in great-power competition. Looking ahead, he sees no major actor — Beijing, Washington or Taipei’s current leadership — as actively seeking a crisis, even as structural risks, domestic politics and leadership changes — including within Taiwan’s KMT, create uncertainty and the ever-present possibility of “black swan” shocks.
