Could VP William Lai Unite Taiwan's Ruling Party?
Taiwan Vice President William Lai recently announced his bid for chair of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Analysts have predicted that if he successfully becomes party chair, Lai could well be the only DPP presidential candidate in 2024. Compared with the DPP, it’s still unclear who will emerge as the opposition Kuomintang (KMT)’s presidential candidate. Taiwan Talks explores what challenges the next president could face with the looming Chinese threat of invasion and as U.S.-China competition intensifies. We take a deep dive into how Taiwan’s next president will need to navigate the years leading up to 2027, when many military analysts say Xi could aim to launch a military attack on the island nation. In this episode, Lai I-chung, Prospect Foundation President and former Taiwanese diplomat in the U.S. and Japan, and Yen Chen-shen, National Chengchi University Professor of Political Science, who is also an expert in Cross Strait and Taiwan-U.S.-China relations, shares their insights on the pressing challenges that lie ahead for the next Taiwan president, from working with like-minded allies to enhancing Taiwan’s deterrence capabilities to balancing the Taiwan-U.S.-China trilateral relationship. We also hear from William Stanton, former de facto U.S. Ambassador to Taiwan, in his capacity as the Director of the American Institute in Taiwan, on the strength of Taiwan-U.S. ties, and Lu Yeh-chung, National Chengchi University Department of Diplomacy Chair and Professor, on the struggles of the KMT in resonating with voters with a Taiwanese electorate increasingly wary of China’s ambitions in taking over Taiwan and the destruction of Taiwan’s hard-won democracy as a result of that. Topics discussed: - Can William Lai bring together the different factions of the DPP together if he becomes party chair? - Advantages and shortcomings of a potential 2024 William Lai presidential candidacy - Will the DPP’s campaign of “Resist China, Protect Taiwan” from President Tsai’s reelection bid resonate again with voters in in 2024? - How will William Lai balance his stronger Taiwanese independence stance when compared to his predecessor President Tsai Ing-wen, as a self-proclaimed “political worker for Taiwanese independence,” and will this raise concerns for the U.S.? - Ways in which the next president could enhance Taiwan’s national defense, from working with the U.S. and other regional allies, to procuring and manufacturing adequate military equipment in building effective deterrence against a Chinese invasion - Will Beijing be willing to speak with the next Taiwan president? - Is the KMT’s 92 Consensus and ‘open communication with China’ still relevant, and what will it take for both sides of the Taiwan Strait to come to the table again? - Implications of Chinese civil unrest on Taiwan: Could the CCP try to distract attention from domestic grievances into nationalism by launching a military assault on Taiwan? - How Taiwan can deal with Chinese economic cohesion through finding alternative markets
