As U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets his counterpart in Beijing this weekend, there have been reports of a potential Taiwan visit this spring by Kevin McCarthy, the newly elected U.S. House Speaker. As China issued a stern warning against the visit, McCarthy responded by saying China cannot tell him where and when he can go. Taiwan Talks takes a deep look at what this means for the simmering ties between the U.S. and China. With tensions between the two countries at its highest last summer following former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit, many analysts have pointed out how the incident was China’s excuse to trigger the ‘Forth Taiwan Strait Crisis’ with its de facto blockade of the island nation. We examine how China is creating a new norm in Asia through military intimidation of U.S. allies. From sending fighter jets to intrude in South Korea’s Air Defense Identification Zone, to the daily incursions in the waters and airspace around Taiwan.
In this episode, Raymond Sung, Taiwan New Constitution Foundation Deputy CEO and international legal expert, and Chen Fang-yu, Soochow University Political Science Assistant Professor and former George Washington University research fellow, discuss how China could react to a potential U.S. House Speaker Taiwan visit in less than a year, and what this could mean for the region’s security and Taiwan’s international space. We also hear from Legislator (DPP) Wang Ting-yu, Foreign and National Defense Committee Chair at Taiwan’s Legislature on how China has no right to interfere in the normal affairs between sovereign nations, namely Taiwan and the U.S. Lastly, we hear from Dennis Weng, Sam Houston State University Political Science Associate Professor on the boost in U.S. support for Taiwan and tougher China stance with the new Republican House majority.
Topics discussed:
- Probability of a McCarthy Taiwan visit: What is the likelihood and will China’s attempt to block it prove successful?
- Significance behind visit: Does a McCarthy visit represent a ‘new normal’ after Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit last year or will it project new U.S. influence in the region as a visit from the most powerful elected Republican official?
- Impact on U.S.-China relations: Will news of a potential visit derail discussions between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang in Beijing?
- China’s ‘New Normal’: How China is using military intimidation in reacting to events and issues it does not agree with countries in the region on
- How Xi Jinping is likely to treat Cross Strait relations given that he has already secured a third term
- New York Times: How Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s Representative to the U.S., became one of the most influential diplomats in Washington, D.C. through her ‘cat warrior’ charm and offensive, by strengthening ties with the nation’s most important security ally, the U.S., amid rising threats from China
- New Republican House majority: Does this translate to increased U.S. support for Taiwan given the party’s critical stance on China?
- Collective security: How ties between U.S. Pacific allies are warming up as they counter Chinese aggression
- Economic coercion: Will China reuse this tactic and how should Taiwan and other like-minded countries in the region respond
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