South China Sea Ruling at 10: China Defied It. Philippines Adapted. Who's Winning Now?
Ten years after a landmark decision by the UN Permanent Court of Arbitration invalidated Beijing’s nine-dash line claim in the South China Sea, tensions in the region are higher than ever. China has expanded its coast guard presence around Scarborough Shoal, increased military and maritime patrols across the First Island Chain and continued to reject the 2016 ruling as "illegal" and "null and void." To mark the anniversary, we speak with former Philippine Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio, one of the key architects of Manila’s landmark legal victory, about what the ruling has achieved — and where it has fallen short. In this episode, we examine the legacy of the 2016 decision, Beijing’s response and how the Philippines, Japan and other regional partners are adapting to China’s growing maritime pressure. *Recorded on July 6, 2026 at 3pm Taiwan Standard Time Host/Senior Producer: Yin Khvat Producer: Miguel Yang Consultant: George Nee Research Assistant: Ryan Pham Our guests: Antonio Carpio - Former Philippine Supreme Court Associate Justice Ray Powell - SeaLight Foundation Executive Director Guermantes Lailari - Jewish Policy Center Senior Non-Resident Fellow
