International Analysis

Japan-China-U.S. Ties as Xi Attends APEC With a Third Term Boost

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By TaiwanPlus

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2022 marks the 50th anniversary of diplomatic ties between Japan and China. With no official Japanese ties with Taiwan, we explore how both countries have enhanced their bilateral relationship and what that means for Taiwan’s defense. According to the Japan Press Research Institute’s latest survey, 79% of Japanese have either an “extremely” or “somewhat” sense of crisis regarding a Taiwan contingency. However, 74% were “against” or “somewhat against” Japanese Self-Defense Forces joining U.S. troops in fighting against China in an invasion of Taiwan. Taiwan Talks digs into whether the Taiwan-Japan relationship could take a turn for the worse as Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi forges closer ties with China. In this episode, Lai I-chung, President of the Prospect Foundation and former Taiwan diplomat in both Japan and the U.S., and William Stanton, former U.S. diplomat including serving as the American Institute in Taiwan Director and currently Professor of International Relations at National Chengchi University discuss the future of Taiwan-Japan-U.S. relations. We also hear from Kosuke Takahashi, Janes Defense Weekly Japan correspondent, on what a Taiwan contingency will mean for Japan and the complicated, delicate dynamics between Taiwan, Japan, and China. Lastly, we also hear from Steve Yates, former White House, Deputy Assistant to the U.S. Vice President for National Security Affairs on the importance of Japan to Taiwan’s security. Topics discussed: - Impact of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s record low ratings and the Japan-China relationship, especially in terms of boosting trade to revive the domestic economy - Will ties between Taiwan and Japan hit a new low with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi taking a potentially China-friendly stance given his long-time support for improving relations with China? - Was Taiwan Vice President William Lai snubbed by not being invited to the Emperor’s Akasaka Palace reception when he attended former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s funeral? - Rationale for Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi’s abrupt calls on evacuating Japanese citizens in the event of a “Taiwan emergency” without discussing any security implications - How Taiwan, Japan, and other U.S. allies can work together to deter China in invading Taiwan, from the QUAD to AUKUS in continuing the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s legacy - Will there be a Japanese equivalent to the U.S. Taiwan Relations Act in enhancing and providing direction to Taiwan-Japan ties? - Intelligence sharing between U.S. allies (Japan and Canada) and how this benefits Taiwan - Increasing U.S. anti-China public sentiment and what this means for Taiwan-U.S.-Japan relations - How imminent is a Chinese attack on Taiwan and what would be Japan’s immediate response given that Japan is only 80 miles away from Taiwan - Deepening economic relations between Taiwan and Japan and the Japan-led CPTPP